Zeev, re: "... that is a concise initial measure,.."
I'm sure I don't need to remind you of the fine line between concision and oversimplification <g>
I know of no source for confirmation of 5%/1% royalties on wCDMA. The 5% number is pretty well known/accepted among industry watchers, though, as it's been consistent through the life of QCOM's CDMA contracts, and wCDMA contracts are generally understood to use the same numbers. As extelecom points out, it has variations, including a 2-tier deal for all products made in China.
Probably the most important thing about the 5% number as it concerns QCOM, however, is that (as of today) it applies to less than 20% of the wireless market. Someday (5 years, maybe?) it should apply to the other 80%.
mjk's recent comments (#1192295) are generally quite accurate (imho) on this subject, too, and reading and understanding what he said would be worth your time. IC sales are a big part of QCOM's business plan and TXN should provide QCOM with a perpetual rabbit for that race in wCDMA. QCOM has not previously had any effective competition in the world of CDMA ICs.
The 1% is a speculative number, of which I've only recently become aware. It's not "cooked" yet, and how it is split is also an issue to be resolved. There were/are a lot of "fathers" of GSM. Finding a way to wedge them all into a royalty scheme which would be salable to the ultimate buyers (the carriers), without driving wCDMA prices too high (given that QCOM wouldn't budge on its 5%) is a cat the manner of whose skinning is yet to be fully determined.
I think you're offering IDCC much too much credit, however, in suggesting it can/will retrieve 1/4% of wCDMA sales. IDCC is, as I (and others) have mentioned, a bit player in wCDMA.
No way are NOK, ERICY, MOT, Siemens and perhaps a dozen or more others (I haven't checked the numbers lately, but I believe there are as many as 20 GSM IP players in all) going to let IDCC have 25% of their pool.
As far as wholesale prices go, I have no good source of that info. The wholesale price of handsets, the most expensive mass product on which QCOM collects a royalty, is often higher than the retail price. This is because the carriers use handset sales as loss leaders to obtain subscription sales. It's a razor/blade thing. So $15, or even $30, is almost certainly too low an estimate.
Actually, the best way to figure out what QCOM is making in royalties is to ask them. Their 10-K and 10-Q break out the business into its component segments, so royalty income is always clearly identified.
all fwiw,
phill
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