Zeev,
There is no doubt in my mind that CDMA will someday be the dominant technology and in as wide spread of use as GSM enjoys today. I do not think many people realize just how powerful this technology is and what I mean by that is instead of using that phone for instant messaging or taking pictures, how would you like to use a laptop freely from anywhere untethered? This is what is to come and that is just the beginning. Did you know that QCOM is working with the motion picture industry to bring movies to the movie houses via this wireless transmission? No more waiting for that canister of film to show up. Hundreds of film houses all over the country will be just a download away and the newest hottest flick is there to be viewed. Awesome time to market savings. This is why a technology like this is needed, to handle the heavy download of information and the only way to get it there quickly and seamlessly will be via CDMA. No other technology known (other than fiber optics) can handle that amount of data and transport it that quickly. When the variants of CDMA reach there peak they are estimated to be able to download this information in the 2-3Gbps range (that's Gigabits per second, and some are estimating 4-5Gbps, we will see). Stop and think about that for a second. We currently use 56K dial up modems, DSL, broadband and the all impressive T1-T3 (what is that, maybe 700Kbs?). It is yet to be seen, but I highly doubt those technologies (including fiber optic) will be fully deployed before those wireless speeds are being seen. It is a lot easier to put up base stations than it is to put in all that fiber optic which will need to be to the curb. Again that's a let's wait and see what plays out.
I can go off on a tangent and tell you things that may not be here today, but will be in this decade or soon after. For instance. How about being able to control your home air conditioning unit from work. Sure sounds crazy, right? Well let's say it is a hot miserable day and you want the home to be nice and cool when you get there. Running that unit all day would cost you a lot of money, especially if it is a day after day hot streak. With a wireless transmission to a remote sensor and the help of other technologies such as that being offered by ELON, you can control these types of devices and access the unit right before you leave for home. Boom, the house is cooling down and after a commute drive it is nice and cool when you get there. So many applications other than phones, that is just the tip of the iceberg and the air interface will make it possible.
Some are saying yeah, right, and I am Batman! Well it will not happen overnight, but it is happening and it will pick up speed as time moves forward. It will also bring into the fray a whole new set of technology company's. This is a disruptive and visionary technology. Any company working on CDMA, 3G or even 4G (we won't go there tonight) has QCOM to thank. They blazed the trail, they fought the court battles and they beat everyone to the punch and are years ahead of everyone. By the time any of those other companies catch up, QCOM will be ahead of the curve, at least that is the way it has played out so far. They have all of the pertinent patents
and the portfolio of patents keeps growing. This company is a juggernaut and the only way they get dethroned is if some other disruptive technology comes out before all this takes place.
QCOM is not only a licensing and royalty bearing company either. They have software, semiconductor chips, GPS one tracking and satellite technology as well, imagine that. Are they the holy grail? No, but damn close in my opinion. I am sure eventually other company's will develop there own chips and others will eventually offer an IPR that may be able to stand next to QCOM's, but right now and into the immediate future these guys are the shit (excuse my expression). I believe they stay ahead of the curve and hopefully the compettion, but over time some share will be lost. I project that they will be making money hand over fist and collecting something from everybody that wants to play in this arena for many years to come and the list of who pays will keep growing. Wireless, it's a beautiful thing...
Dissertatiion and rant over...
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