Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

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ENROLLMENT REFLECTIONS

There has been some controversy regarding what SK said about the 90% of enrollment and what that could mean.

We can gather some conclusions by applying some enrollment modelling.
This model is based on Golfho’s model that takes into account the moment when Centers joined Sunrise and then I made some variation of enrolling 1 patient after 16 or 17 weeks, alternatively every month.
And these are the results (patients enrolled):




The curve clearly fits the “hockeystick” type curve, and PPHM mentioned that this type of curve was potentially possible as stated by Shan and SK.
(On dec 10th 2013 exactly 2 years from the last CC) Joseph S. Shan - Vice President of Clinical & Regulatory Affairs
“Again if it is sort of event driven. So that's, like Steve mentioned earlier, a function of enrollment if the enrollment curve more of a hockey stick or more of a flatline…”

Now, the former reasoning only tells us that the above hypothesis may not be too far off and that actually there is quite a chance that the model resembles pretty well reality.
With this set of mind, please take a look at the number of patients that would be enrolled this month: 38 patients, which is around a 6% of the total and fits with the more than 90% of enrollment, as stated by SK.