Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[exwannabe]

The 2:1 ratio I’m expecting to see in the first look-in, is a derivative of the MOS data that we saw in the phase2 NSCLC trial. The MOS of the Doce arm was 5.6 months, just short of 6 months. The Bavi arm MOS was 11.7, just short of 12 months.

If Doce events were occurring at a mean of 6 months (rounded), and Bavi events were occurring at a mean of 12 months (rounded), a look-in on that trial, at some point, should have seen approximately 2 Doce events for each Bavi event. The Bavi MOS was twice that of the Doce MOS. That’s where my 2:1 derivative comes from.

Even if I accept your P2 numbers (which I do not), you are making a fundamental math error here.

First, mean is not median.

Second (and more importantly), your math fails to account for the simple fact that as the trial progresses there will (hopefully) be more patients at risk in the bavi arm, thus more deaths there than in the placebo arm.

As a simple reducto to absurdium, consider the event count at the final look. Let us suppose the end is set at 500 total events, clearly the ratio will not be 2:1. Perhaps 270:220 would be an exceptionally good result.

BTW: Opdivo targets T-cells, not cancer cells.