Biotech Values

[Praveen]

Dew/Vertex,

I am not sure if I can convince you regarding comparing Vertex and Idenix.But I will try one last time .

I can't understand why you want to compare Vertex and Idenix deals. Nobody here or the analysts are’nt comparing their HCV drugs or their deals.

See the following messages:

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=22586653

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=22586918

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=22587332

You compare a Protease inhibitor like VX950 with another Protease inhibitor from Schering plough's SCH 503034 which are in the same class and MOA. See in this paragraph below from Merril's:

“We would look to review our rating on Vertex, pending data from the PROVE 1/2 studies, and updates for competing HCV protease inhibitors (e.g., additional dose ranging data for SCH 503034, Schering Plough’s HCV protease inhibitor).”

What ever Vertex's VX 950 efficacy is, It still has a lot of risk with toxicity and SVR. So getting a partner like Tibotec(JNJ) with experience in manufacturing capability with 100% North american rights(More than 3M pts) and mid 20's royalty rates for the rest of the world, 545M $ in milestone payments is an amazing deal for Vertex. The street seems to like it n it is up by 15% roughly today.

If you still want to compare with the Idenix deal, which I am not interested to compare the two, here are Merill's comments:

“The upfront terms for VRTX’s ex-US deal appear to be higher than the global hepatitis C deals announced for Human Genome Sciences’ Albuferon with Novartis (see HGSI notes from June 6 and 7 for details), and Idenix Pharmaceuticals’ valopicitabine (NM 283) also with Novartis. The deal also reduces the need for VRTX to seek additional equity/debt financings.”

Sometime ago you were comparing Anadys which stimulates the body to produce its own natural interferon and Idenix's NM283 which is a polymerase inhibitor. Hcv space is very open and a big unmet one and you have to wait to see the various combinations which work the best. It is not a First come take all or a Winner take all scenario.

I am not critisizing Novartis here. I said they didn't place their bets well in the HCV space. In one of my previous posts I wrote I like Novartis and there is a sea of difference between Novartis n Pfizer research presentations if you remember.

Regards,
Praveen