ajtj99's Market Pulse

[market_watcher]

No problem. There might be an issue, but I used a binomial distribution(up day or down day), where the probability of success on any given trial is 52%, the historical average of down days after big up days. I simply calculated the probability that the 6th day out of 6 days would be up, based on the fact that the most recent 5 days after big up days were up. I get about 8% as the probability that with a 52% 'success', i.e. down day, rate, there is at most 1 down day. Since the last 5 days have been 'failures', that means there's only an 8% chance of another 'failure', i.e. up day.

I hope that helps clarify how I arrived at the figure. Of course, it may all end up being a moot point for the purposes of profiting today. Thanks for the compliment on the VXN stuff.