Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

> IMCL – What type of #s have you seen as far as analysts estimates for use of Erbitux in 2nd line CRC? Also, weren't they already showing dismal #s in 2nd line?<

IMCL hasn’t disclosed the actual sales in second line CRC, but you can come up with a decent estimate from what they have disclosed. The following stats are from 3Q05 and they have not changed materially in the past couple of quarters:

#msg-8262529

BMY/IMCL have not been selling a heck of a lot of Erbitux in the second line, so there isn’t much to lose immediately from the broad Avastin label. On the other hand, the second line was believed to be an area where Erbitux could gain some penetration at Avastin’s expense from better marketing, and this expectation no longer seems realistic.

>Do you think IMCL gets smashed tomorrow because of this news?<

It may not get hit badly because: 1) a sizable drop already occurred on Tuesday afternoon, presumably due to the Avastin news leaking; and 2) the focus is still on the takeover activities. I do think this is a non-trivial setback for IMCL, however, and it’s not crazy to imagine that it would affect the takeover bids to some degree.