Biotech Values

[bladerunner1717]

Peter,

I think you're being much too "rational" here. The Market is not rational as a whole and individual investors (and institutional investors as well) certainly cannot be considered "rational."

A severe drop in the Market is going to hit the most speculative stocks the hardest. Investors simply hit the panic button in these situations. And speculative micro- and small-cap biotech will get hit the hardest.

I know that you put "isolated" in quotation marks, but I still think it's a very ill-advised term.

Think of a stock like ACAD where the inventors rushed to the exits after a failed trial. Some investors, including me, thought the problems could be corrected in the trials and so I bought in at $1.29. Not many people would have thought that was very "rational" at the time I did it.

PCYC and MDVN are other examples of the Market not looking deeply into the pipeline in the investor panic to get out of the stock. I'm guilty of that with PCYC. And to some extent--I didn't own it, but I was so happy with myself for predicting the failure of Dimebon that I completely overlooked the pipeline--with MDVN. My point is that when negative events take place in the Market, investors tend to overreact. Sometimes this overreaction can be a buying opportunity, sometimes not. But the point here is that the overreaction tends to hurt the most speculative stocks the hardest, and that certainly applies to micro-cap biotech.

I'm hoping that the above analysis works with ARQL and MEIP, because I loaded the truck up on both. LOL

For the record, I own TRIL, AFMD, IPH.PA, I bought more TRIL and AFMD yesterday and established a position in STML. I'm now looking at JUNO which is about 50% off its highs.

I am hoping that the old Market cliche that says "The Market never bottoms in August" is not true this time around.

Always appreciate your thoughts.

Bladerunner