valuations overall are not stretched, corporate credit spreads look fine, and swap spreads which are indicative of systemic risk are not indicating anything remotely resembling a crash here. We're already down about 8% on the S&P, 10% on the Russell and DOW... I'd be surprised to see more than another few percent of downside along with a few months of choppiness. I certainly don't see anything of the magnitude you are predicting. I also see almost no resemblance to 1987 or 2000. And I think commodities, which are coming off a 10 year supercycle, will continue to underperform for the next year or 2 at least with growth moderating in China along with the resource intensive emerging markets that have been driving the demand.