Biotech Values

[gofishmarko]

RE: Handicapping VRTX

I'm assuming the listed outcomes could also refer to the triple therapy results , i.e. VX950 + ifn + riba , so with that qualification , here's my guess on the probabilities for the three outcomes :

1. If the SVR rate after 3 months of 950+ifn is <65%.....~10%.

2. If the SVR rate after 3 months of 950+ifn is >=85%....~60%.

3. If the SVR rate after 3 months of 950+ifn is >=65% and <85%....~30%.

Another way to say this is that I would expect > 90% probability that one of the 3-month regimens will result in >65% SVR , based on the results of the earlier , small studies. This assumes that the predictive power of RVR is still valid in VX950-containing regimens , of course.