"That in Q3 all the $1000 AMD parts become $300 AMD parts?"
That would be on the desktop. How many are sold in a quarter? A thousand? Less?
"That AMD is moving more and more mainstream desktop to dual core, which will both reduce capacity and increase cost?"
At the same they are increasing capacity? No. As far as the increased cost, the chip size is only a little more than it was at 130nm. They would have been profitable then if it hadn't of been for flash.
"but I suspect things will start to turn pretty sour in Q3"
Why? It is a seasonally up quarter and NGA will be thin on the ground. AMD will likely still be gaining MSS in notebooks and there are all those vulnerable P4 sockets.
"I think Intel can still sell a ton of single core netburst product in the sub $100 segment, and dual core netburst in the $100 to $200 range."
Maybe. But AMD is pushing AM2 and low power at the commercial market. There is also the Chartered product. With some information that was floating about earlier, the Chartered product is small cache X2 at under 40 watts. Given over 300 die candidates on a 300mm wafer, AMD can offer OEMs an excellent platform for building small, quiet and cheap boxes for the commercial market.
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