GTCB – Possible/Probable 2006 News Flow:
An expansion in GTC’s modest valuation may depend more on osmosis than on specific news drivers. Nevertheless, there are some possible and probable events during the rest of 2006 that could be considered market-moving.
1. More Merrimack-like production deals. The effect of deal announcements on the stock price could be large, depending of course on the partner(s) and the partnered drug(s).
2. MM-093 results. As GTC’s main partner, Merrimack will be in the spotlight with clinical data from two trials: the phase-2b in RA (data expected soon) and the phase-2 in psoriasis (data expected in late summer).
3. Start of phase-2 European trial in DIC/sepsis by partner, Leo Pharma. This may not be a large news driver per se, but it will help to cement the view that ATryn is more than just the hereditary–deficiency indication. Expect news in the fall, following feedback from the EMEA on trial design.
4. A partnership for ATryn in Japan. This may not happen until 2007, but there’s a decent chance for an announcement this year. Japan is a large potential market for ATryn, but at least one Japanese clinical study will be needed to obtain marketing approval.
5. Completion of patient enrollment in the U.S. ATryn trial. The U.S. will be by far the most important market for ATryn in both HD and acquired deficiencies because (unlike Europe and Japan) plasma-derived antithrombin is rarely available. Expect news on completion of enrollment around year-end.
Dew
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the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated
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