FGEN
Thanks for the notes! I've been holding off on a full position waiting for a bit more on safety checks, but the valuation is awfully tempting right now to add. Given your stats background and knowledge can you comment on how passing quarterly DSMB data reviews derisks the program. I assume the threshold for stopping if MACE and other adverse events trend in the wrong direction is far lower than the opposite (i.e stop for safety in favor of roxa) - but i really can't quantify this. If you had a good sense of this, as well as how far they are in enrollment, i think you can start to really semi quantify how liklihood of success changes over time in a setting like this were efficacy is a given.
Honestly a stoppage for safety and the stock totally tanking is the one thing stopping me from diving in whole heartedly, but i see that possibility shrinking over time
I also think now that i am enlightened by Peter as to the high event rate in incident dialysis there is a higher risk of this type of a trial being stopped in favor of roxa if it is indeed safer/more effective, nad it suck not to have a full position if this were to occur, however low thsi might be
TIA
PS: next DSMB review should be end of the month if it is quarterly since at the last call march 26 it had recently just taken place per the call
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