Simple Response to your Thesis because this is why I totally disagree.
This group does not have the mindset if you build it they will come. Demand is taking a rapid natural progression in multiple markets that have been asking for it.
The manufacturing costs you speak of are actually going to be cut as ramped up larger batch sizes will decrease manufacturing costs.(Mostly for Orders) Raw ingredients costs will decrease as well because both purchasing power and unit freight costs will decline. The toll agreements for manufacturing are likely defined to cut tolling cost with economies of scale for the increased batch sizes.
True, Raw ingredient costs will likely be incurred up front, but most suppliers have decent terms with a show of strength in balance sheet. Not to mention a couple phone calls from the new high powered partners.
Raw ingredients cost along with manufacturing will be turned into cash with inventory turnover at a conservative 1 to 3 months.
I think it is evident that Rush, Li Ka-Shing, along with the rest of the group would in no way tolerate a $6myn revenue growth year over year on an almost $20 myn capital investment.
Without the investment the company was likely due for a $24+myn Revenue in 2015 given the current natural year over year growth.
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