Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

GTCB Q&A with gfp927z
(from the COR ymb):

>>
Re: [OT] GTCB
by: DewDiligence
06/05/06 06:11 am
Msg: 30283 of 30283

>I should do my own DD on GTCB, but a few questions - any estimates on how big the ultimate market for Atryn will be?<

The company’s guidance is $500-700M annually. I think this is a little high, but the true value of the company is its production platform rather than ATryn (or any individual drug).

>I wonder if/how much the pending European approval might accelerate the timetable for US approval?<

EU approval won’t have any bearing on the timing of FDA approval (which could come in 2008), but it may have a beneficial effect on the probability of getting FDA approval.

>Can additional partnerships be sought for Atyrn beyond what those already in place?<

Absolutely! I expect more Merrimack-like deals to ensue now that prospective partners can feel comfortable that GTC’s production technique will not be a regulatory hindrance and may offer substantial cost savings compared to building a bioreactor or contracting production to a company such as Lonza.

>What's next in the GTCB pipeline?<

ATryn for DIC/sepsis, a much larger market than the just-approved hereditary-deficiency (HD) indication. In Europe, the DIC/sepsis indication will be pursued by GTC’s partner, Leo Pharma. In the U.S. GTC will probably seek a partner for DIC/sepsis while GTC itself is preoccupied with the phase-3 trial in the HD indication.

>Even with the big move on Friday, with the regulatory situation being resolved in Europe, one would have to consider GTCB a strong buy.<

I agree: with 69M shares on a fully-diluted basis, the diluted market cap net of cash is less than $100M! Regards, Dew

[Posted as a reply to: Msg 30282 by gfp927z]
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