Burk, you can have a recession and inflation. It happened several times in 1970-1982.
Something like 98% of what is sold moves via truck in the USA. If it moves by truck, fuel costs impact it.
Our freight costs doubled from 2002 to 2005. What did we do? We increased all of our prices to recover it. Our retailer customers are doing the same.
Heck, even UPS used to ship a 1# package for something like $2.00 6-years ago. Now it's more like $4.00. That's just an example of parcel post. Trucking is a big difference. Heck, one delivery trip we do was costing $4,500 last year to deliver round trip, and that same trip now runs $6,500.
Fuel costs are huge, and I can't see how anyone can see that it isn't. It permeates all commerce in the US.
I deal with manufacturing, distribution, transportation, and retail. I may be closer to this stuff than most, and that's probably the reason we differ.