ajtj99's Market Pulse

[ajtj99]

Larry, have you looked at 1999 using the SAR? Look at the daily BPCOMP:

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$BPNDX,uu[h,a]daclyyay[d19981104,20000312][pc20!c13!h.02...

SAR sell in Jan 1999 was at about COMP 2320. The buy back was at around COMP 2480. That sell signal resulted in a loss.

Another signal in May was good for maybe 80points until the June buy, a sell signal in June lost about 150-points, a sell in July made maybe 100 points, as sell in September lost 100-points, a sell in December lost about 300-points, a sell in the end of January resulted in a loss of about 450-points.

Added up, you've got about 180-points in gains, 1160-points in losses. Your indicator resulted in a net loss of almost 1000 COMP points over 13-months in a bull market. You lose 6-times as much as you gain with this indicator in 1999.

I do not know anyone who uses this for anything other than a snap-shot showing the current trend.

BTW, I just noticed the COMP is currently just under the monthly 20-EMA at 1605:

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$COMPQ,uu[h,a]maclyyay[d19981104,20030712][pc20!c13!h.02...