Both Dwti and Uwti were created in early 2012, so there is no 10 year chart. Neither etn has experience an oil price crash. I see a Dwti low of around 21.00 and wti crude high of around 106.00, occurring in June. All the way to a low of about 42.00 crude and high in the 190s for Dwti. That's over a 8-9 month period. Wti crude lost about 63% which should be a 189% gain for Dwti, Which would put it at around a 60.00 high.
To be honest, I cant really explain/understand how Dwti increase over 900% instead. The reason I think that happened is likely due to contango. When the contract would roll over to the next month, Dwti was likely able to accumulate more and more short shares (or whatever it uses to track inverse crude) each time it rolled over. Which would compound the daily/monthly percent increases it saw.
In order for Uwti to see these same higher gains, it would have to accumulate more futures contracts each month than it held the month before. This can only happen if we see backwardation. For example if June contract at 59.80 rolled over to july contract at 58.00, then Uwti would sell its June contracts, and be able to buy a larger amount of july contracts, because they are a lower price. This would have kept Uwti around 3.60 with wti around 58.00 instead of wti 60.00. If we see backwardation like that happen soon, then Uwti could possibly get back in the 10s or 20s. But this would take several months or years even. long term im not even going to pretend to have an idea what will happen.
But for what's possible to happen in the next month or two, can you show concrete evidence of how Uwti could possibly get up to 9.00, unless wti hits 90.00? And I don't think gaps on the charts over the last few years counts as evidence. The only way it is possible for Uwti to gain more than 3x what wti gains, is for a backwardation structure to occur in the futures contracts. And that doesn't happen over night.
My opinion, as always.
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