Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Goldman Sachs excerpt on IDIX
from 5/18/06 (c/o quidditch on SI).
Makes an interesting companion
read with #msg-11329859.

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We continue to expect FDA decision on Telbivudine for HBV ($0.5B) in late 2006 [the PDUFA date is in October]. …We estimate the sales potential is over $0.5B worldwide. [This is an extremely conservative forecast; they presumably mean the U.S.+Western Europe (rather than worldwide) because NVS owns the rights to Telbivudine elsewhere.]

Assuming an industry sales multiple of 5X, peak sales of $0.5B in 2010, 50% share with Novartis and 15% discount rate, the present value of Telbivudine is about $13.40/share. [This excludes the sizable amount of cash on hand as well as the value of the NM283 program in HCV, which could be worth as much as $500M in clinical (start of phase-3) and regulatory milestones.]
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