Yes. This is the point in the game where he must show his hand. A no ease, or a tightening would confirm the economic strength the foreseen by equities. Bonds would be crushed, foreigners happy though, as the $ would firm. In this, the market would trend higher holding the major supports, but not the trendline. $BP drop to say 40 at most, but real quick. The 50bp scenario ends up going pop by the end of the summer, and the lows are not safe. IMHO.