Biotech Values

[dangerM]

pure guesswork:

a) insurances
- Well, IMS (rough calculation ~ 2700 trx) _and_ Symphony (~ 4700 - don't nail me on exact numbers) both seem to do pure guessing, _if_ the reply in the following tweet is right:

FYI IMS #HCV scripts: IMS is blocked from #Viekira scripts through the ESRX distr., IMS not a reliable on market share between $GILD & $ABBV

— H3NPHLO (@H3NPHLO) January 27, 2015

(Same issue for Symphony. They stress to 'look at the growth trends in the data, vs focusing on the script numbers.').
- As well, pharma reps seem to be quite negative ("HCV at Abbvie is worse than living in hell.") http://www.cafepharma.com/boards/showthread.php?t=575995&page=5 - though I believe this is sth that differs by state.
- In theory Abbvie has quite some advantages - treatment with good response, no need for a specialist to get a prescription in the Express Scripts deal, yet I believe doctor's and patients just did not fully grasp that there was a new product same as effective as Harvoni

b) public sector
- I think VA and Medicaid just had to get used to Vpak in Q1. I also believe that they are quite restrictive in how they treat (in spite of the discounts).
- Abbvie has many presentations at EASL about the cost benefit of treating early, probably to get payers, perhaps even public payers to treat without biopsies (like in the Express-Scripts deal) and all (does not sound like fun, having a biopsy and needing a cirrhosis to get treatment).
- All in all I do not believe this will outweigh the private sector.

c) Europa
- virtually nothing

All in all, maybe only 150mn sales in Q1? But it could be anything (which is why I sold my Enanta shares and used a small parts of my proceeds for a straddle/strangle on Abbvie)