Wednesday, May 24, 2006 11:52:14 AM
Re: How can they possibly make any money out of what they are doing? Either that or at the low end of the estimate.
You might be forgetting that Intel is executing to the plan they already knew in advance when they made their Q2 guidance. They knew they would lower prices, and they knew they'd take a hit to volumes to clear out extra inventory (which they said was only about 10 days worth). If you believe they will come in below forecasts, that means they will have had to lower prices even further (which hasn't happened), or they will have taken an even larger hit to volumes (and we won't know this for sure until they announce). Of course, if Intel is below their forecasts, we should expect an announcement soon to that effect. Usually at the 2/3 point in the quarter, which would be in another week or two, they will know enough about B&B to make a rather accurate guess as to how the quarter will turn out. They will warn if it's below estimates.
Re: They will also write off inventory one time in Q2 and take a restructuring charge in Q3.
If they fail to consume the inventory, I think we can expect a charge, and if there are costs associated in closing down some locations, such as those recently announced, then there will be a restructuring charge associated with that. But IMO, I don't expect either of these to be large, if anything at all. And if they are, then you can expect Intel to post a warning in the next couple of weeks.
You might be forgetting that Intel is executing to the plan they already knew in advance when they made their Q2 guidance. They knew they would lower prices, and they knew they'd take a hit to volumes to clear out extra inventory (which they said was only about 10 days worth). If you believe they will come in below forecasts, that means they will have had to lower prices even further (which hasn't happened), or they will have taken an even larger hit to volumes (and we won't know this for sure until they announce). Of course, if Intel is below their forecasts, we should expect an announcement soon to that effect. Usually at the 2/3 point in the quarter, which would be in another week or two, they will know enough about B&B to make a rather accurate guess as to how the quarter will turn out. They will warn if it's below estimates.
Re: They will also write off inventory one time in Q2 and take a restructuring charge in Q3.
If they fail to consume the inventory, I think we can expect a charge, and if there are costs associated in closing down some locations, such as those recently announced, then there will be a restructuring charge associated with that. But IMO, I don't expect either of these to be large, if anything at all. And if they are, then you can expect Intel to post a warning in the next couple of weeks.
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