Here's a perfect example of what I just described Simple. I grabbed a random pair in the strat test just a minute ago for grins and giggles. It was in a downtrend so I fast forwarded a bit to wait on a zone test near the EMA196 in a counter trend move. The more I look at the charts, the more I see where these give the most pips in the least amount of time and they seem to be 100% (or about as close as you can get) accurate.
This is an EA 15 minute chart. Again, this will work on any time frame though.
As price action approached the EMA196, it actually took out an old supply zone but almost immediately it formed a new one that encompassed the EMA196. Then the smoothed HA candles started showing hammer formations...the first signal that price is about to resume the downtrend.
What I've learned is that in cases like this, you don't actually have to wait for the first yellow HA candle to show up. With elongated wicks at the top and very small bodies, I have yet to see a test pair break through this setup.
I took the short near the bottom of the upper newly formed zone and just waited. The arrows mark my exact time and entry. By the time the yellow HA candles showed up, price had already dropped substantially. I spent practically ZERO time in drawdown. When I pulled the trigger and took the strat tester off of pause, my trade immediately went into the green by a couple of pips...basically zero drawdown. It took a bit over an hour to complete. This is one of those setups that you can enter, set your stops and targets, and then just walk away.
My target was set just a hair above the lower demand zone and it went straight to it, almost without hesitation.
As you said with your original setup, we will probably take fewer trades with this setup but they'll be much more profitable trades.
So far, I've found that the combination of the zones and the HA candle test give the best results. The HA candle touch of the guppy gives good results too as long as the trend isn't too long winded but I haven't had nearly as much success with HA candle tests of the guppy as I have with the zones.