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Re: dr_lowenstein post# 149837

Friday, 04/03/2015 12:03:08 AM

Friday, April 03, 2015 12:03:08 AM

Post# of 403187
Thank you for this thoughtful reply.


while there are many prescriptions written for IR Oxy, the dollars are with the ER version. Egalet recently licensed IR Oxy from Acura. In that agreement a milestone threshold is described, $150 million. Usually these milestones are fairly lofty goals and usually are set for 5 years or so out.




Using your numbers, and assuming there is no FDA action or federal/state law which would make use of ADT-IR even more prevalent, then we would arrive at $30,000,000 earnings per year from ELI-200 alone. With conservative PE ratio of 15 and fully diluted share count 1 billion, sounds like you are predicting an increase of $0.45/share within 5 years for ELI-200 alone. Seems conservative, but we'll stick with it. Since you also say "the dollars are with the ER version," what kind of increase in share price do you think ELI-201 (OxyER) would bring in that same 5 year time period?
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