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Post# of 257438
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DewDiligence

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DewDiligence

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Re: WorstLuck post# 189384

Tuesday, 03/31/2015 6:29:44 PM

Tuesday, March 31, 2015 6:29:44 PM

Post# of 257438

OCRX (addendum)—I'm mostly curious how you got to 4% chance of futility. I have no feel for whether that is high, low or about right and could benefit from deeper understanding.

As I indicated in a prior post, the 4% figure is just a guess based on experience. However, what some readers may not know about futility analyses is just how futile they are. #msg-110052747 explains why this is so. Regards, Dew

“The efficient-market hypothesis may be
the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated
in any area of human knowledge!”

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