CNAT—why is it that biopsies were not done to measure efficacy...?
This was a biomarker trial; showing clinical efficacy in NAFLD/NASH would require a different kind of trial that would include before-and-after biopsies.
Are they going to start phase-3 based on surrogate-marker endpoints?
That’s the plan, although it’s not yet clear which kinds of liver-disease patients will be enrolled in this trial. The results of the other phase-2 trials reading out in 2015 will guide this decision.
Will FDA approve such a trial?
The FDA recently published guidelines (in conjunction with AASLD) on acceptable surrogate markers for NASH, so the idea of seeking accelerated approval based on a set of such biomarkers is consistent with the FDA’s current thinking.
“The efficient-market hypothesis may be the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated in any area of human knowledge!”