AI
Friday, March 27, 2015 11:00:04 AM
I'm pretty good at guessing "close to" bottoms. Not so good at exact bottoms. Then there is the issue of "what time frame". I generally make profits even when I get the timing a bit off. Reason being, I will trade quickly if I see that I called it wrong. Cut your losers short, and let your winners run.
A few weeks back, I was looking at a possible bottom near $3.50. PPS went up, then the trade looked like it was going to resume the downward trend. I sold quickly, even made a few bucks.
Just last week, I bought on the "fear trade", near $3. Price went up on the news story. Looks like we are in "sell on the news mode", so I sold at a 10% profit (held less than a week).
Yesterday's trade was positive. Bought a small stake at $3.13. This morning still looking good. Way too early to be calling for the bottom, but signs are improving.
I am still waiting to commit a large sum for a long run higher. No doubt we are closer now than we have been in a long, long time.
Could be we are seeing seller fatigue. Still, no buyer enthusiasm. One can tell from the sentiment of this board, people are very cautious at this point.
IMO, not much long term risk at today's price. Anticipate the price will be significantly higher in the next 6 to 12 months. So even if one misses the bottom, and price goes lower, in a relatively short time probabilities favor higher prices in the future.
As of this moment, price is down slightly. So, I am currently holding onto my dry powder, But, I have a quick trigger finger. Definitely would like to buy more cheaper. Definitely don't want to buy higher than my last sale near $3.30.
Risk in waiting that price could spike higher, quickly.
Opportunity, if price drops on low liquidity.
Almost always profit from the "fear trade".
Things can get emotional around here, but price has been relatively stable.
Summing up, likely that sellers are getting fatigued (sketchy on just yesterday's trade), still no positive trend in place. Knife is still falling. But, where is the floor? My guess, within 10%.
I think when a positive trend starts there will be signs. Less risky at that point, but probably will be off the lows.
Always good to see a key reversal day (up after a down cycle, on high volume). Likely CTIX will go into a consolidation phase, with a tradable but shallow range. Consolidation until the next catalyst for a sustained move higher. Could be a sign if volume really dries up for a few days, with a very narrow range of trade.
We probably will know it when we see it. Still not seeing it.
Success often comes when preparation meets opportunity. So get prepared.
A few weeks back, I was looking at a possible bottom near $3.50. PPS went up, then the trade looked like it was going to resume the downward trend. I sold quickly, even made a few bucks.
Just last week, I bought on the "fear trade", near $3. Price went up on the news story. Looks like we are in "sell on the news mode", so I sold at a 10% profit (held less than a week).
Yesterday's trade was positive. Bought a small stake at $3.13. This morning still looking good. Way too early to be calling for the bottom, but signs are improving.
I am still waiting to commit a large sum for a long run higher. No doubt we are closer now than we have been in a long, long time.
Could be we are seeing seller fatigue. Still, no buyer enthusiasm. One can tell from the sentiment of this board, people are very cautious at this point.
IMO, not much long term risk at today's price. Anticipate the price will be significantly higher in the next 6 to 12 months. So even if one misses the bottom, and price goes lower, in a relatively short time probabilities favor higher prices in the future.
As of this moment, price is down slightly. So, I am currently holding onto my dry powder, But, I have a quick trigger finger. Definitely would like to buy more cheaper. Definitely don't want to buy higher than my last sale near $3.30.
Risk in waiting that price could spike higher, quickly.
Opportunity, if price drops on low liquidity.
Almost always profit from the "fear trade".
Things can get emotional around here, but price has been relatively stable.
Summing up, likely that sellers are getting fatigued (sketchy on just yesterday's trade), still no positive trend in place. Knife is still falling. But, where is the floor? My guess, within 10%.
I think when a positive trend starts there will be signs. Less risky at that point, but probably will be off the lows.
Always good to see a key reversal day (up after a down cycle, on high volume). Likely CTIX will go into a consolidation phase, with a tradable but shallow range. Consolidation until the next catalyst for a sustained move higher. Could be a sign if volume really dries up for a few days, with a very narrow range of trade.
We probably will know it when we see it. Still not seeing it.
Success often comes when preparation meets opportunity. So get prepared.
