Biotech Values

[willyw]

I think that ENTA valuation could go up.

1) Both ENTA and ABBV have suggested that it will take some time to enroll the HCV program, but there is increasing evidence it is bigger than some suppose.

2) Current valuation may only reflect the value of the 1st Gen program.

What will the value be if the 2nd gen program is viable and may put ABBV-ENTA on close to equal footing against GILD for the following years when analysts *currently* expect earnings to peak, then decline? Keep in mind that w/ FDA approval of the 2nd gen program ENTA will have BOTH 1st gen earnings coming in for some countries while generating income w/ 2nd gen program, and that Japan will be a better tiered deal as well. I think that the earnings will have to seriously be re-evaluated. Therefore, the buy out value may also change radically.

It would seem to me that an extended period of royalties (for 1st and 2nd gen programs) to be paid to ENTA would make a buyout price likely to go higher.

3) And what of the other ENTA assets? NS5A, Cyclophillin inhibitor, or nuke? In a relatively short period of time there may be given an enhanced value, or they could become a new partnership.

Once again, current valuation may ONLY reflect the 1st gen program (which may be undervalued). ENTA may be right on the cusp of that changing.