The scenario these talking heads paint may come to pass, but I seriously doubt it. My favourite expert on this out there is Phil Flynn, ( regular column on barcharts daily,)who I think nailed it with his firm call that oil bottomed at $44. The wti charts looks like it as well
Since then oil has been relatively stable around $50 plus or minus a buck or 2. It drops each Wednesday when production volumes are reported, and rises thur/Friday when rig counts are reported.
Today is a good example. Along with that fluctuation, rex share price follows. Possibly worth a very short term in/out trade to play that repeating scene. However, for a longer term hold margins have to go up and hence my waiting for ethanol prices. The rbob is up significantly from the lows and the forward curve shows that. Come spring and summer driving season it should go up quite a bit more. With it, ethanol demand and price. Low Corn prices, good weather, export demand and a decent rfs decision would seal the deal, all of the latter still up in the air.
You mention some better stock plays right now. I probably agree. Which did you have in mind?
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