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Re: JimQuinceH post# 473464

Friday, 05/12/2006 7:38:39 AM

Friday, May 12, 2006 7:38:39 AM

Post# of 704047
ADBE trading in the trough here , has forshadowed alot of the weakness

ADBE Adobe Systems: Concerns over another guide-down bring ADBE shares close to trough valuation - Piper Jaffray (32.63 )

Piper Jaffray notes that ADBE is down >15% following the co's intra-quarter update. While the magnitude of Adobe's guide-down for Q2 was not significant from a percentage standpoint, they believe shares are down due to concerns about what the impact of a faster slowdown in CS2 and Acrobat 7 could mean for Q3 and Q4 guidance. They say Street numbers came down for Q3 and Q4, but may require further reductions. Firm says the stock is within 7% of trough valuation and 52% below peak valuation, based on current Street EPS estimates. Even assuming a 5%, or more, reduction in Street estimates, they think risk/reward on ADBE shares is positive at current levels. Based on this three-year valuation range, they think downside potential for ADBE shares would be 12%, while upside potential would be 45%.




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