Biotech Values

[dewophile]

thanks for the summary
I think it's pretty easy to estimate the value of the HCV market near term - abbv and certainly gild have given plenty of metrics to use:

250K pts will be treated in the US per GILD (very consistent with the range for GT1 pts ABBV gave)
somewhere "north of 100K" once EU ramps up
we now know how much discounting is in the US (46% for GILD, likely 50% for ABBV). pricing in the EU we don't yet know with good accuracy but one can guesstimate reasonably well. we even know the HCV haul for the 2014 market based on 150K patients getting treated at a lower discount rate (22%) to plug in..

the real unknowns are how screening and awareness programs are going to drive growth of the treatable pt pool and how that will ramp (5% of the undiagnosed initially growing to say 15%? perhaps higher as these pts age and walk into doctor's offices for other reasons?) for the outer years

japan is also a bit more unknown but i do think next year will be a very big market given the high prevalence and advanced stage of disease

as for market share that also is a bit more unknown but has gotten easier with the exclusives, no? abbv with 20% as a floor based on what they have divulged for exclusives - perhaps a tad higher since i think they will get more earlier stage pts from the ESRX contract than the average, and they may ultimately get proportionally more medicaid and govt payers which cover higher prevalence groups (at a more heavily discounted price of course)

this shouldn't be a herculean task to model for the next 2-3 years