Last post of the day for me!
I am posting another post by John D. His knowledge of BiOasis is far greater than myself and most investors.
It is a long post but well worth the read.
Back to the topic, Roche/Genentech owns Herceptin (trastuzumab) and controls its manufacture. The drug is commercially available by prescription and for scientific purposes. biOasis is able to acquire quantities of it for its work. The conjugations (or fusions) of Herceptin with the full size Transcend (MTf) version and with the Transcend peptide version (Transcendpep or MTfp) result in New Chemical Entities that biOasis owns.
As readers here know, we've been talking for a long time about the seemingly obvious importance of bringing Herceptin biosimilars into the equation. A big part of the commercial value that could be available to biOasis is represented by not only the commercial opportunities that BT2111 and its successors could obviously present, but also by the threat that they represent to the interests of the players in the Herceptin and biosimilar space. Whoever can treat HER2+ brain tumours could capture all of that market and render the other players' offerings obsolete, including Roche's Herceptin. So, one would think that the players, or some, or one, would be interested in what biOasis is doing.
Herceptin and (we assume) Herceptin biosimilars can be fused with the two Transcend versions and they would also result in New Chemical Entities. However, it's not possible to commercially acquire Herceptin biosimilars because they are still in development or trials, and are not commercially available. Therefore, companies like biOasis can only acquire them from the companies that make them.
The questions and speculations arising from the delay in an announcement, if there really is a delay, are related to whether biOasis is still in the process of setting up an animal study with Herceptin, with a biosimilar or with both. I think that no matter what, biOasis probably has to test Herceptin again with the fusion proteins, MTf-TZM and MTfp-TZM, in order to compare the results with the BT2111 study at Texas Tech.
When we consider the possibility that biOasis could include a biosimilar in the study, things get interesting.
First, biOasis could still be setting up the studies. After all, using both Herceptin and a biosimilar would require extra planning and resources. But because biOasis would have to deal directly with the maker of a biosimilar, then that brings its owning pharma into the picture. That pharma could very well demand secrecy, especially if there is no licensing agreement between the pharma and biOasis that would protect the pharma's interests. Remember that licensing agreements, the pledging of IP rights, are material and would have to be reported. Secrecy could very well be required.
And then, a secret study could leave the apparent delay open to questions, the primary one being whether the delay is the result of continued planning or whether studies could already be secretly underway. The delay could clearly be explained either way.
My point in all of this is that the delay is unexplained and open to conjecture, including the possibility that biOasis is more advanced in this than we know.
Either way, news from biOasis about either the start of a study, or of the end results of a study, should be relatively close. It has become the habit of investors and contributors on this forum to often take the downside view of things when the upside view is, logically and evidentially, just as legitimate.
I don't know where we're going here, but I would rather anticipate all realistic alternatives than to just consider straight line possibilities. For the forum, I think it's healthier to consider all the possibilities rather than just, day after day, hoping for The Big Deal. There are some other really big things that could happen.
I still maintain that I would rather see some sparkling study results before I see a deal. Dramatic results could generate a significant media and market reaction that could not only make more deals more likely, but could increase the value of those deals. One of the biggest fears I have is that a pharma will make an offer for biOasis before biOasis can establish a serious market cap.
