Biotech Values

[justrpaul]

Lack of transparency on Viekira scripts from ESRX.

ESRX doesn’t have all of the market. The 25 million members in their national formulary probably only contain 80,000 +/- GT 1 individuals (Using a 0.47 HCV prevalence rate for commercial insurers cited in the Milliman report - http://bit.ly/1GTZjN4. And correcting for GT1 /GT2 and 3.)

With 3 to 4 million individuals with HCV in the USA, the lack of reports from a plan serving 80,000 should be put in context. The number of relevance isn’t as much what isn’t being reported, but what is being reported, an average of about 80 Trx per week. Even if we include all of ESRX members at about 90 million that would yield only an HCV GT1 population of 280,000, or 8% of the midpoint estimate of 3,500,000.

In other words, the very low number of scripts being reported are for 92% of the HCV population. What is not being reported is the scripts for 8% of the population.