Biotech Values

[linhdtu]

willy, not having an aversion to paying taxes on cap gain(s) especially when it is LT already, is the RIGHT attitude to have when speculating in the stock mkt.
I sold my taxable shares for the same reason you did; all were LT except 1Ksh.
As for the DCF model I posited, it is just one way to guess/estimate the "true or intrinsic" value of any company. It would be much more accurate estimation for stabler,bigger pharmas or oil companies for example.
In the case of "biotech values" lol, the short term value is so skewed by the volatility and retailers' mood for the stock.
Be as it may, I believe there are some merits to my thesis. In the case of enta, mr Mkt really does not have any good visibility for the prospect(s) of enta's pipeline. And mr Mkt really loves to fantasize about pipelines. Take Vrtx for example. From reading the book " A 1B$ molecule" about Vrtx, I understood clearly how the company Vrtx and the WS community aka the "analysts" played and danced together in this choreography in order to extract $ from the public.
As a company Vrtx has never made any money, yet its mkt cap today is 30B$.
HCV is a curable disease now. The world patient pool may be large, but it is not relevant as the price charged is too small compared to the rich countries. So while it is a long term and stable biz, how profitable can it be and will it be, a few yrs hence with newer competition ?
So going back to the DCF equation where p = d/(r-g), d will grow to a max number and then decline from there. The whole gist of my using DCF to explain mr Mkt's unlove for enta is summed up in my assumtpion that d (bereft of any visibility for future increased revenues normally attributed to pipelines and again I reiterate that mr Mkt just loves to smoke some good weeds and fantasize about your future revenues if enta, like Vertex ,gives him any excuse) is not a growing number along with g being negative (how negative I don't now).
I remember from "1B$ molecule" that the "analysts" do use DCF and they were just waiting for Vrtx to feed them the revenues projection from Vrtx mgt to plug into their spreadsheet to come out with p. Bogus prediction of revenues of course in hindsight but it does not matter. The game is still being played today, definitely in "biotech values". That is the reasons why Kite, Juno ect ... are all flying high. No visibility gives WS license to cook up d and g any way they choose.
Unfortunately for HCV and enta, Mr Mkt seems to think he has a darn good idea how to estimate those two values. Mr Mkt could be wrong and I could be wrong. Only time will tell. However for me I have made enough profit already. "Always leave money on the table" is one of my rules in speculation, seared into my memory from my experience with dndn and elan.