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Re: ReturntoSender post# 6854

Wednesday, 01/21/2015 10:57:39 PM

Wednesday, January 21, 2015 10:57:39 PM

Post# of 12809
From Briefing.com: It was another topsy-turvy day in the stock market, yet it was ultimately resolved in a winning fashion with each of the major indices recording modest gains.

The S&P 500 information technology sector (+0.2%) trailed the S&P 500 (+0.5%) thanks in large part to a weak showing from IBM (IBM 152.09, -4.86, -3.1%), which disappointed investors with its fourth quarter results and FY15 outlook.

Some of Wednesday's more notable news items for sector components included the following:

IBM (IBM 152.09, -4.86, -3.1%) reported Q4 (Dec) earnings of $5.81 per share, excluding non-recurring items, well ahead of analysts' average expectation. Revenues fell 11.9% year/year to $24.11 bln (down 2%, adjusting for the impact of the divested customer care outsourcing and System x businesses and for currency). With dollar strengthening, IBM said currency will have significant impact on revenue growth in 2015, 5-6 points (impacted 4Q14 by nearly $300 mln). IBM sees FY15 EPS of $15.75-16.50 versus $16.53 for FY14. Separately, IBM announced a new strategic technology services agreement with Anthem (ANTM 139.68, +2.55, +1.9%); the services agreement is valued at nearly $500 mln.

CA Tech (CA 29.94, -1.73, -5.5%) reported Q3 (Dec) earnings of $0.67 per share, which was better than expected. Revenues fell 3.3% year/year to $1.09 bln, which was slightly below expectations. Q3 Bookings decreased by 29% y/y, on constant currency basis, to $1.067 bln. Total revenue backlog decreased by 8% y/y, on constant currency basis, to $6.685 bln. Co sees FY15 EPS of $2.45-$2.52 and FY15 revs of $4.26-$4.30 bln. Reaffirms FY15 cash flow from operations guidance of $1.0-$1.07 bln.

Google (GOOG 518.04, +11.14, +2.2%): According to Space Exploration Technologies (Space X), it has raised a billion dollars in a financing round with two new investors, Google and Fidelity. Separately, The Information, citing three people with knowledge of the plans, reported Google is preparing to sell mobile phone plans directly to customers and manage their calls and mobile data by way of Sprint (S 4.39, +0.23, +5.5%) and T-Mobile's (TMUS 30.08, +0.54, +1.8%) networks.
Apple (AAPL 109.55, +0.83, +0.8%) benefitted from a research report suggesting is achieving smartphone market share gains against key competitors in Asian markets.

Qualcomm (QCOM 71.59, -0.89, -1.2%), according to a press report, has been dropped from the next Samsung (SSNLF) smartphone. Cowen said the press report speculates that SSNLF will use Exynos for ALL models, but that it consider that as UNLIKELY. Cowen reiterated its Outperform rating on Qualcomm.

Microsoft (MSFT 45.92, -0.47, -1.0%) unveiled its Windows 10 operating system.

Amphenol (APH 53.93, +1.58, +3.0%) reported Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.63 per share, excluding non-recurring items, which was better than expected. Revenues rose 14.5% year/year to $1.43 bln, also better than expected. The company said it achieved growth in most markets with particular strength in the automotive, industrial and mobile networks markets. For Q1, Amphenol sees EPS of $0.55-0.57, excluding non-recurring items, and revenues of $1.286-1.326 bln. For FY15, it sees EPS of $2.41-2.49, excluding non-recurring items, and revenues of $5.493-5.653 bln. The Company's Board of Directors has authorized a new two year open market stock repurchase plan effective January 21, 2015, for up to 10 million shares of the Company's common stock."

Fiserv (FISV 72.42, -0.74, -1.0%) announced that Consolidated Edison of New York, the electric, gas and steam utility in New York City and Westchester County, New York, has implemented BillMatrix Payments from Fiserv. Some notable items for technology companies outside the S&P 500 information technology sector included the following:

Cree (CREE 33.88, +1.54, +4.8%) reported Q2 (Dec) earnings of $0.33 per share, excluding non-recurring items, which was ahead of expectations. Revenues fell 0.5% year/year to $413.2 mln, slightly above estimates. For Q3, Cree sees EPS of $0.21-0.25, excluding non-recurring items, and revenues of $395-415 mln. Cree's CEO said, "We made solid progress in Q2 with operating margin higher than targeted due to an improvement in gross margins in our lighting business."

Celestica (CLS 11.27, -0.04, -0.4%) reported Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.23 per share, excluding non-recurring items, which was light of analysts' average expectations. Revenues fell 0.9% year/year to $1.42 bln. For Q1, Celestica sees EPS of $0.18-0.24, excluding non-recurring items, and revenues of $1.28-1.38 bln.

Advanced Micro (AMD 2.45, +0.21, +9.4%) reported Q4 (Dec) net of breakeven, slightly worse than expected. Revenues fell 22.0% year/year to $1.24 bln. Q4 gross margin of 29% and non-GAAP gross margin of 34%. Gross margin was down 6 percentage points sequentially, primarily due to lower of cost or market inventory adjustment of $58 million related to its second-generation APU products. Non-GAAP gross margin was down 1 percentage point sequentially. For Q1, sees revenues declining 12% to 18% sequentially to ~$1.016-1.09 bln, which is below analysts' estimates.

ASML (ASML 106.59, +2.78, +2.7%) reported Q4 (Dec) earnings of 0.70 per share, which was well ahead of expectations. Revenues fell 19.2% year/year to 1.49 bln. For Q1, sees revenues of ~ 1.6 bln and gross margin of around 47%.

Cypress Semi (CY 14.16, +0.15, +1.1%) announced that United Micro (UMC 2.41, +0.03, +1.3%) licensed CY's SONOS embedded Flash memory intellectual property for the 40-nanometer process technology node.

Amazon.com (AMZN 297.25, +7.81, +2.7%) saw some increased trading action on reports Carl Icahn invested in the company. CNBC later reported that Mr. Icahn has no ownership in AMZN.Analyst Actions:

SAP (SAP 64.08, +0.52, +0.8%): FBR Capital lowered price target to $65 from $72 following earnings. Argus lowered its target to $87 from $99 while BMO Capital Markets lowered its target to $70 from $71.

CA Tech (CA 29.94, -1.73, -5.5%); FBR Capital raised its target to $33 from $29 following earnings.

Apple (AAPL 109.55, +0.83, +0.8%): Oppenheimer said it is expecting strong Dec. results and Mar. guidance. Firm raised its C1Q15 estimates and reiterated its Outperform rating with $130 PT.

Electronic Arts (EA 48.07, +0.26, +0.5%): target raised to $53 from $46 at Stifel Electronic Arts (EA 48.07, +0.26, +0.5%): target raised to $53 from $46 at Stifel

Xilinx (XLNX 41.51, +0.45, +1.1%) downgraded to Outperform from Buy at Credit Agricole

Altera (ALTR 34.73, -0.26, -0.7%) downgraded to Outperform from Buy at Credit Agricole

KLA-Tencor (KLAC 69.41, +0.50, +0.7%) assumed with a Neutral at Credit Suisse

Applied Materials (AMAT 24.32, +0.69, +2.9%) and Lam Research (LRCX 80.04, +1.54, +2.0%) assumed with an Outperform at Credit Suisse

IBM (IBM 152.09, -4.86, -3.1%): Stifel lowered its target to $180 from $190.

ASML (ASML 106.59, +2.78, +2.7%) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup.

Verizon (VZ 48.25, +0.07, +0.2%): downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays, which lowered its target to $51 from $54

Brooks Automation (BRKS 12.58, -0.02, -0.2%) assumed with a Underperform at Credit Suisse; target $10

Advanced Micro (AMD 2.45, +0.21, +9.4%): target lowered to $2 from $3 at Credit Suisse; Underperform

Cree (CREE 33.88, +1.54, +4.8%): downgraded to Sell from Underperform at Credit Agricole

4:25 pm Xilinx beats by $0.01, misses on revs; guides Q4 revs below consensus (XLNX) : Reports Q3 (Dec) earnings of $0.62 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.01 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.61; revenues rose 1.2% year/year to $594 mln vs the $616.59 mln consensus.

Co issues downside guidance for Q4, sees Q4 revs of approx $558-582 mln vs. $635.48 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate. Gross margin is expected to be approximately 68% to 69%. Xilinx sees Mar qtr sales are expected to be down 2% to down 6% sequentially; expectation was for 3% increase (consensus revenue equates to 7% increase off Dec. qtr actual) Operating expenses are expected to be approximately $227 million including $2.5 million of amortization of acquisition-related intangibles.

4:08 pm F5 Networks beats by $0.06, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; announces additional $750 mln share repurchase (FFIV) : Reports Q1 (Dec) earnings of $1.55 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.06 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $1.49; revenues rose 13.8% year/year to $462.8 mln vs the $467.14 mln consensus. "In addition to the seasonal softness we normally experience in the first quarter of a new fiscal year, product sales during the quarter reflected a marked decrease in the number of deals greater than $1 million," said John McAdam, F5 president and chief executive officer. "While this resulted in slower than expected revenue growth for the quarter, the number of large deals in the current pipeline is encouraging and indicates that we should see a resumption of the recent trend toward larger deals in the second quarter.

Co issues downside guidance for Q2, sees EPS of $1.48-1.51, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $1.53 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees Q2 revs of $465-475 mln vs. $478.84 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.

The company also announced today that its board of directors had authorized an additional $750 million for the company's common stock share repurchase program. This new authorization is incremental to the $180.7 million currently unused in the existing program which was initially authorized in October 2010.

4:08 pm SanDisk beats by $0.03, reports revs in-line with lowered guidance from last week -- co will guide for Q1 on conference call beginning at 17:00 (SNDK) : Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $1.30 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.03 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $1.27; revenues fell 0.6% year/year to $1.74 bln vs the $1.73 bln consensus; gross margin 45%.

Co lowered guidance on January 12: Sales to $1.73 bln from $1.80-1.85 bln; gross margin to 45% from 47-49%"Our SSD solutions reached 29 percent of revenue in 2014, with strong growth from both client and enterprise SSDs. We are disappointed with our fourth quarter results, which were impacted primarily by supply constraints. We believe that NAND flash industry fundamentals are healthy, and we expect our financial results to improve as we move through 2015."

4:04 pm Plexus beats by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 EPS above consensus, revs in-line (PLXS) : Reports Q1 (Dec) earnings of $0.72 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.01 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.71; revenues rose 20.8% year/year to $644.7 mln vs the $647.56 mln consensus.

Co issues guidance for Q2, sees EPS of $0.74-0.82, excluding non-recurring items and $0.10 in stock based comp expenses, vs. $0.71 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees Q2 revs of $630-660 mln vs. $648.58 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate. "During the quarter, we won 32 new programs in our Manufacturing Solutions group. We anticipate these wins will generate approximately $190 million in annualized revenue when fully ramped into production. The wins performance this quarter results in a trailing four quarter total of approximately $801 million in annualized revenue, or approximately 32% of our trailing four quarter revenue, well above our goal of 25%."4:15 pm : Equity indices enjoyed their third consecutive advance on Wednesday with the S&P 500 climbing 0.5%.

The highly-anticipated policy meeting at the European Central Bank will take place tomorrow morning, but that did not stop the Wednesday session from being filled with central bank-related storylines. The Bank of Japan got the ball rolling overnight by lowering its inflation outlook to 1.0% from 1.7%, which boosted the yen (117.80).

The Bank of England was next on tap with the minutes from its latest policy meeting. The minutes were a bit surprising as Messrs. McCafferty and Weale, who previously voted in favor of rate hikes, rejoined the majority in their belief that hiking rates too early would prolong the period of low inflation. The newfound dovish tilt at the BoE helped UK's FTSE spike 1.6% to outperform the region.

Meanwhile, other European indices struggled in the early going after ECB governing council member Ewald Nowotny said policymakers should maintain their long-term perspective and that "one should not get overexcited" about [the meeting].

Mr. Nowotny's remarks contributed to a cautious start in the U.S., but global equities jumped off their lows in reaction to reports indicating the European Central Bank is set to propose EUR50 billion in asset purchases through 2016. The euro wobbled on the news before ending the day near 1.1590 against the dollar. In a surprising move, Germany's 10-yr note tumbled, sending the benchmark yield higher by seven basis points to 0.47%.

The Bank of Canada completed the central bank bonanza with a surprise 25-basis point cut to 0.75% in response to crashing oil prices, which are expected to put downward pressure on Canadian inflation. The loonie retreated to its lowest level since early 2009, sending USDCAD to 1.2330 from 1.2070.

All ten sectors registered gains with energy (+1.8%) maintaining the lead throughout the session. The recently-batter sector was able to trim its January loss to 2.8% with help from crude oil, which spiked 2.7% to $47.78/bbl. Another commodity-related sector-materials (+1.0%)-followed not far behind with steelmakers underpinning the move. The Market Vectors Steel ETF (SLX 33.38, +0.68) gained 2.1%.

Elsewhere, the remaining cyclical sectors ended mixed with respect to the broader market. Industrials (+0.7%) and consumer discretionary (+0.6%) outperformed with the latter receiving a boost from above-consensus earnings reported by Netflix (NFLX 409.28, +60.48).

On the flip side, financials (+0.2%) and technology (+0.2%) spent the day among the laggards. The tech sector could not keep pace with the market due to a 3.1% loss in the shares of IBM (IBM 152.09, -4.86) after the Dow component missed revenue estimates and issued disappointing guidance. However, chipmakers rallied behind better than expected results from ASML (ASML 106.59, +2.78) and Cree (CREE 33.88, +1.54). The broader PHLX Semiconductor Index advanced 1.1%.

Over on the countercyclical side, the utilities sector (+1.0%) extended its January advance to 4.3% while consumer staples (+0.3%), telecom services (+0.2%), and health care (+0.1%) underperformed.

Treasuries notched their highs in the morning before giving up those gains in early afternoon action. As a result, the 10-yr yield jumped six basis points to 1.86%.

Participation was a bit below average with roughly 750 million shares changing hands at the NYSE floor.

Economic data was limited to Housing Starts/Building Permits and the MBA Mortgage Index:

Led by a large increase in single-family construction, new housing starts increased 4.4% in December to 1.089 million from an upwardly revised 1.043 million (from 1.028 million) in November
The Briefing.com consensus pegged new housing starts at 1.040 million
Single-family construction increased 7.2% to 728,000 from 679,000 in November, representing the largest number of single-family starts January 2008 (773,000)
Building permits fell to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.032 million versus a revised 1.052 million for November (from 1.035 million)
The Briefing.com consensus expected permits to come in at 1.060 million
The weekly MBA Mortgage Index spiked 14.2% to follow last week's 49.1% surge

Tomorrow, weekly Initial Claims will be released at 8:30 ET (Briefing.com consensus 302,000) while the FHFA Housing Price Index for November will cross the wires at 9:00 ET.

Dow Jones Industrial Average -1.5% YTD
Nasdaq Composite -1.5% YTD
S&P 500 -1.3% YTD
Russell 2000 -3.2% YTD

DJ30 +39.05 NASDAQ +12.58 SP500 +9.57 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1250/1.70 bln/1651 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1970/752.8 mln/1123 3:35 pm :

Energy futures posted some gains today.
WTI crude oil rallied over the $48/barrel level, but pulled back some and close below here
However, WTI crude rallied $1.27 overall and closed today's session at $47.78/barrel
Feb natural gas futures recovery some of yesterday's losses and ended $0.15 higher today at $2.98/MMBtu
Precious metals sold off following some ECB comments
Feb gold lost steam and close $0.60 lower at $1293.30/oz
Mar silver finished with a small gain of $0.23 to $18.19/oz

1:59 pm SanDisk Q4 Earnings Preview (SNDK) : Sandisk is set to release its Q4 results after the close in which Capital IQ consensus estimates call for EPS of $1.27 on revenues of $1.73 bln. Last week, Sandisk lowered its Q4 revenue guidance to $1.73 bln vs the then $1.83 bln Capital IQ Consensus Est. The co further shared that non-GAAP gross margin for the fourth fiscal quarter is expected to be ~45% compared to the previously guided range of 47% to 49%.

The company traditionally offers guidance on its conference call for expected revs and gross margins.For Q1, Capital IQ consensus estimates call for revs of $1.59 blnFor FY15, Capital IQ consensus estimates call for revs of $7.23 blnRecent DevelopmentsOn January 13, Gartner said worldwide semiconductor capital spending to increase 0.8% in 2015. Despite strong growth of 12.9 percent in 2014, worldwide semiconductor capital spending is projected to only grow 0.8 percent in 2015, to $65.7 billion, according to Gartner, Inc.

On January 12, Sandisk lowered their Q4 revenue guidance noting the lower revenue was primarily due to weaker than expected sales of retail and iNAND products. Non-GAAP gross margin for the fourth fiscal quarter is expected to be approximately 45% compared to the previously guided range of 47% to 49%.Shares had rallied strong since their previous quarterly report in October but the company's guidance warning last week eliminated all those gains and more with the stock now sitting at levels last seen in April 2014. Before their guidance revision, shares were trading above $97 per share

Highlights from Last Quarter
Reported Q3 (Sep) earnings of $1.45 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.10 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $1.35; revenues rose 7.4% year/year to $1.75 bln vs the $1.76 bln consensus.Non-GAAP gross margin 49% vs. 47-49% guidance.On their Q3 conference call, SNDK guided for Q4 revs of $1.80-1.85 bln vs $1.87 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate and non-GAAP gross margin of 47-49%.

On their call the co shares that it sees "Strong demand signals from customers in all key product categories"
Management also commented that it expects Enterprise SSD revs to surpass $1 bln in 2015, a year ahead of previously stated timeline

Analyst Commentary

On January 13, UBS lowered their SNDK tgt to $100 from $110 noting while retail and iNAND were mentioned as areas of weakness, firm will have to wait till the 21-Jan earnings call for full details on the duration of this weakness. Retail typically comprises 32-38% of overall sales, with Q4 being the strongest on consumer demand. Firm believes the retail weakness could be attributable to: 1) pricing pressure due to increased TLC supply that could be leading to lower ASPs for memory cards, USB flash drives, or client SSDs, 2) US Dollar strength against emerging market currencies impacting demand. Firm notes that Micron's (MU) near term NAND margins are also being impacted by client SSD ASP pressure.On January 13, Needham downgraded SNDK to Hold from Buy. SanDisk pre-announced lower than expected revenues and gross margins driven primarily by worse than expected sales of retail and iNAND products. They are particularly disappointed in the GM% performance, with 4Q14 levels now expected to be at their lowest since 1Q13. With SanDisk's growing CapEx and downward trending GM%, FCF may have peaked, which could limit capital return to shareholders in 2015 & 2016. Furthermore, they believe Samsung is at least one year ahead of SNDK in its progress toward 3D NAND, possibly altering its competitive position in the NAND market long-term. As they've stated in the past, they prefer DRAM fundamentals over NAND and favor MU over SNDK.Options Activity

Based on SNDK options, the current implied volatility stands at ~ 40%, which is ~ 16% lower than historical volatility (over the past 30 days). Based on the SNDK Weekly Jan23 $80 straddle, the options market is currently pricing in a move of ~6% in either direction by weekly expiration. (Fri). SNDK calls are outpacing puts by a factor of 1:9:1 (10.3K calls traded vs ~5.3K puts).

New Lows outpacing new highs (138) (:SCANX) : Stocks that traded to 52 week highs: ABAX, ABCD, ACT, ADVS, AEP, AET, AGN, AHH, ALGT, ALK, ALR, AMAG, ANTM, APSA, APU, ASPX, ASR, AWK, AWR, AXL, BBN, BCR, BFK, BIIB, BNDX, BUD, CBST, CHL, CI, CLNY, CMS, CNC, CNS, COKE, CPB, CRME, CTSH, CVS, DEG, DNP, DPS, DTE, DUK, EBIX, ED, EFX, EIA, EIO, ESPR, EVN, FE, FICO, FSL, GAS, GEVA, GFED, GNCMA, GXP, HDB, HELE, HOLI, HQL, HTD, HUM, ICCC, IIM, INAP, INDY, INFY, IRC, JAH, JJSF, KEYS, KRFT, LFC, LTC, MFL, MRCY, NAC, NBB, NEV, NJR, NOC, NPM, NPSP, NSP, NVAX, NXQ, NXR, OGS, OPHT, PCYC, PDT, PEG, PENN, PETS, PFE, PKG, PMF, PNW, PZC, RHP, RIF, RKT, RLGT, SAM, SBGL, SCG, SJW, SKH, SMCI, SO, SURG, SWKS, TE, TEG, TEP, TKC, TR, TSEM, TTWO, UAL, UIHC, UNH, UTG, UTHR, UVE, VCLT, VCV, VFL, VGLT, VISI, VRTX, WEC, WEN, WGL, WM, XEL

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