There is way more paper (derivatives) trading out there than there is actual metal. THAT determines the price.
The paper (or contracts traded) will always follow what is happening in supply and demand in the long run. Example is oil contract trading. Many went long at 60 and $70 only to get burned as prices continued to sell-off.
The demand for Palladium will continue to rise, especially if sanctions are tightened on Russia's ability to export goods. The US and Europe are trying to squeeze Russia as hard as they can. Added sanctions are coming.
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