I have a somewhat better level of respect that you seem to leifsmith for the predictive ability of the market - at least in the short-term and where there are concrete things, licenses, fees, contracts and well-defined revenue streams.
The market is very good about looking at these obvious and measurable factors, weighing risks and rewards, and projecting a potential value for most companies.
But as your example from Apple points out,.... the Market has a really hard time predicting value for 'things' or ideas that haven't got to market yet - and that are incomplete, and that come with equally hard to measure risks along the way. And that's (IMO of course) where we find ourselves with NNVC right now.
I would argue that the market is looking at the perceived value of NNVC today Vs. yesterday by primarily looking at the things with NNVC that are 'knowns' and that can currently be measured. Yesterday - the company spent a touch greater than 10% of it's liquid capital to buy a necessary, but very illiquid and not easily re-sellable piece of infrastructure.
The net gain (long-term) for NNVC in value may be significant,.... once that big piece of illiquid infrastructure starts producing a product that can generate revenue. But for the moment - what the market is seeing is the at-hand cash for a company with no existing revenue stream (other than share sales) just went down by a bit more than 10%. This purchase raises the perceived risk (in the short to medium term) that the company will need to do a dilutive share sale sooner than the market might have predicted, and shareprices fell accordingly.
BUT - All of this could change almost instantly once that plant is a net revenue generator to offset that capital input.
"Mr. Market" tends to see only what is immediately estimable and in front of it though,.... When NNVC gets its "breakthough",.... then "Mr. Market" will almost immediately cease to be oblivious.
And those of us in here early will likely do quite well.
I only hope we all do as well in the end as did the Apple shareholders in your example.
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