If you don't sell to cover then you are effectively buying more stock now, which distorts the subsequent comparison.
I would argue that an exercise-and-hold-all-shares transaction being tantamount to buying more shares (because of the need to satisfy the tax liability) is exactly the point and the reason such a transaction is bullish.
Thus, I agree with your original contention in #msg-54034666 and I disagree with your new qualification in #msg-109706460.
“The efficient-market hypothesis may be the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated in any area of human knowledge!”