The New CS Board

[gdl]

Done deal! Crude inventories in US for December fell by over 7 million barrels. It is the largest ever for December. The weakness is extreme. Next stop 50, and it will most likely occur next week. The street expected a draw down of over 2 million. That's a huge miss and underestimation of the glut in Oil.

Not sure how far of a drop we get in equities. I actually think that we fall to 1970 again or lower. I have the same reaction to this snap-back move as I had when SPX dropped to 1850 in October. Irrational hiccups. This time around I will make an option play for a fast move.

My rational is simple. The huge drop in Oil over last 6 months, combines with the same move in the dollar makes me believe we have not found support. You can't base when the fundamentals are NOT what is expected. Huge jump in GDP and huge drawdown in Oil. The market is way too complacent expecting yet another quick adjustment in the blink of an eye.