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Re: Karl50 post# 29992

Tuesday, 05/02/2006 8:06:40 PM

Tuesday, May 02, 2006 8:06:40 PM

Post# of 79025
I do not mean the market does not react. I mean that market trends have little to do with the Fed and what it says and does.

It is true the market reacted last week to the Fed, as it did yesterday. However, last week's one-day rally was certainly not a "monster rally" unless you are interested in intraday trends. Similarly, yesterday's sharp drop was not trend-setting, changed little of any signficance, and is now all but forgotten. Today, the market merely picked up where it left off, before being rudely interrupted by Maria and the Fed and all the self-serving attendant hoopla that is altogether irrelevant.

That's essentially the story with all news, IMHO. Company-specific news can and does affect specific companies, but news never sets trends or affects them significantly.

On extremely rare occasions, news may alter the course of the market for as long as a week if the event is an extreme event (e.g., 9/11). But that only occurs once every several years. Even then, fundamental trends are unaffected, and the market rapidly reverts to the underlying trends that were in place before the huge news event.

The vast majority of news does not affect the markets for more than a few hours, or a session at the most. Then, the market just continues doing what it was doing in the first place. That's what we saw today.... before the Fed news yesterday, the market was in the process of putting in a narrow-range candle on the day. That was merely postponed until today.

Bottom line IMHO is that if you want to know what is happening in the world, read the news. If you want to know what is happening in the markets, read the markets. Markets don't determine what the news will be and the news doesn't determine what the market will do either.

WS




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