Big companies = herd mentality. Mid level guys making 400k/yr at big pharma are not going to do anything that risks their job or go out of their way to rock the boat. Cubist is the market leader for what they do and Merck may have other "information" that we don't, but I doubt it and I'm betting on arrogance and lack of DD on Merck's part. Also, what buy/sell side i-banker/analyst is going to tell the Merck CEO, "this isn't a good deal?" Especially considering a large part of their compensation comes from said deal.
There are half a dozen folks on this board, who based on their posts alone, are better at DD than many pedigreed types on the "street".
Scarcity or the lack of resources is the catalyst of innovation. CTIX, as a start up, is forced to do more with less. Look no further than Leo picking up the PolyMedix tech for ~5M. How in the world he did this, I still don't know. Innovation and disruptive technologies is still mainly a small company domain and CTIX is at the top of the list in my book in that regard.
If we compare Merck to Cellceutix we can see the difference clearly. For CTIX, it could be argued that Brilacidin has added up to 250M to CTIX's market cap in the past year, a 50x return (to date and potentially much more). On the other hand, we have credible sources saying Merck (with all it's i-banker consultants) may be overpaying 3,000,000,000 for Cubist. Which CEO would you rather run your business?
My conclusion is that CTIX is run by smart, capable men who have proven time and again to be not only exceptional operators but visionaries. It's a combination on which I continue to bet heavily! Expect price ramps and declines but the overall trend will be higher and significantly so.
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