Elah Holdings Inc fka RELYQ (ELLH)

[Olmsted]

Thanks for kicking off, Vince.

I ran some numbers last week:

Debt

Secured debt: $70M (new asset-backed loan)
Sr. debt: $300M (new debt)
Sub debt:$18.3M currently held at NABCO (not the parent)
Other liabilities: ~$17M
Total debt: $405.5M

Cash: not much after acquisition

Equity
Preferreds: $30M
Current common shares: 12.5M
New shares: 12.25M
(I used $10 a share as a placeholder as well. Doesn't really matter for the rights offering if you participate - but it does for the secondary offering)
Total equity mkt cap @ $10/shr: $277.5M
(basically agrees with your numbers)

Earnings

EBITDA: $80M - $105M (TTM ~$80M, TTM + growth indicated by last YoY quarter - $105M)
Interest: $23.2M (assumed blended 6% on debt - this is probably too high. NABCO pays ~5%, but I didn't check the details on its guarantees.)
Taxes: assumed ~0 (10Q indicates 72K, probably state/local)
Maint. CAPEX: $30-$35M per management
FCF: $24M (low EBITDA, high CAPEX) to $54M (high EBITDA, low CAPEX)

Let's go with $36M as a good midpoint using $90M EBITDA and $32.5M CAPEX.

That's an EV/EBITDA of ~7 and a P/FCF of ~7. The most optimistic scenario has P/FCF at ~5, pessimistic P/FCF at ~11.

Of course, this gives no value to the NOLs - at least those that will not be consumed by this acquisition.