Yep, it is all about the $USD. People should be buying this keeping $USD in mind. If one thinks the $USD will drop some more, then buy JNUG (such as if seeking a higher trending swing trade, etc).
But if $USD rips higher yet, we'll be at 8's or less in a heart beat. We certainly are at risk yet for $USD to recover and move higher yet for a while.
Even on the intra-day basis, I watch the $USD movement for anticipating right spots to buy JNUG cheaper, including selling it.
$Gold - GLD, etc, is always on watch list along with $USD - UUP. Always watch the correlating-affecting factors.
$GVZ is a 3rd good one to pay attention to. Cross reference indicators work great for trading with more accuracy. When $GVZ - Gold volatility index gets really overbought and looks like it is due for a pullback (along with $USD perhaps) then it guides into the right idea for buying JNUG. It is why I started playing/buying JNUG recently, as all the correlating indicators were ling up for me.