Clarification re: licensed production capacity... and some other random thoughts...
Tweed's Smiths Falls license permits them to grow up to 15,000 kg annually, or just over 33,000 lbs.
The Niagara on the Lake greenhouse facility, has the capacity to produce up to 45,000 kg at full utilization, but appears to be limited to around 4,500 kg presently (around 10,000 lbs)
I don't see these "caps" being an impediment in the short term, and there doesn't appear to be any reason to believe that with continued compliance all around, they won't be able to increase the licensed capacity at the Tweed Farms (greenhouse) facility.
At full capacity, of both facilities, that's the potential to supply 78,000 kg annually (or 133,000 lbs +/-).
Clearly a lot has to happen between now and then in terms of market development, and build out of infrastructure, but even at a capacity of 19,500 kg that's the potential to grow almost $150,000,000 worth of product at $7.50 per gram... looking way, way ahead to the blue sky, and production of 60,000 kg... even if prices come off, that's still around $350,000,000 to $400,000,000 in revenue...
Assume net margins of 20% to 25%, and one can readily project earnings per share of anywhere from 80 cents to over $2.00 put whatever multiple you want on that - it'll be worth more than the $2.08 a share we see today!
Yes, I know that requires a few grand leaps of faith, and perhaps some generous assumptions, but no-one (except maybe Green2013 :) ), is saying it'll happen this year - it will take time. But, management has proven themselves to be fairly methodical, transparent, and principalled. And they seem to be taking the appropriate steps to move ever forward. The big unknowns remain: (a) how rapidly will the market grow, and (b) can they get the consistency of their product quality up - anecdotally, I've heard that considerable progress is being made there, and I, for one, am kind of excited to see what kind of individual they tap to be the next CEO, and how that will translate into improved operations.
I get distracted from time to time with the arguments from those who stridently argue for the status quo, and the benefits of compassion clubs, and the risks of the overhanging legislation, but I am convinced that in the medium to longer term there is clearly a role for the LPs, and I remind myself that the market is growing even without relying on this subculture's consumption of LP product. They are not the target demographic... and, in my mind, I can't see how the compassion club 'system' can be allowed to remain in operation in the current manner, if the laws are to be enforced. I could see them becoming distributors of licensed product, perhaps, and notwithstanding that I will hear otherwise from awesomeshriek, I suspect that model could be made to work well for all stakeholders.
... and, I guess given the size of my position, I will be voting Liberal in the next election, and hoping for a rational and measured move towards an environment of regulated legalization!
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