AMD strictly moderated (AMD)

[wbmw]

Re: I am not really assuming any discounts as the 3800+ price hit $300 on 1/23. I believe the averages are weighted heavily to the entry model of each range.

How heavily would you have to weigh a product mix without discounts before the average dips below the lower bound of the range?

I suppose you could make an argument that the product lines are bottom weighted, but if you show the work, I think you'll find it to be a highly unlikely scenario. In the Athlon 64 product line, for example, you are assuming a $160 average, but the product pricing starts at $155 for an Athlon 64 3200+ and goes up to $341 for an Athlon 64 4000+. You would have to assume a mix like this:

 
 3200+   95%     $155   => 147.25 
 3500+   2.50%   $205   => 5.13 
 3700+   1.25%   $238   => 2.98 
 3800+   0.75%   $288   => 2.16 
 4000+   0.50%   $341   => 1.71 
                        => asp of ~$160

Do you think this is realistic? What would be your version of this? Let's try this:

 
 3200+   50%    $155   => 77.5 
 3500+   30%    $205   => 61.5 
 3700+   10%    $238   => 23.8 
 3800+   7.5%   $288   => 21.6 
 4000+   2.5%   $341   => 8.5 
                        => asp of ~$193

I think this is a lot more realistic, assuming list price. But I'll also agree that an 18% discount could bring these parts inline with a $160 ASP.

Re: As to the 73 vs the 85 that was modified in light of AMD's own data which showed some shifting from the 90% historical average which I had in mind before.

Well, I'm happy to have influenced you to go back and research AMD's own data.

Hopefully, your own work with a viable ASP scenario will help to change your opinion further.