Foreign Correspondence

[Amaunet]

Precarious symbiosis: U.S. and China face increased strains

Can a symbiotic relationship exist between enemies? I believe this is what we are seeing. China will use the relationship to their advantage for as long as possible in order to better thwart a U.S. policy of containment akin to its Cold War strategy toward the Soviet Union.

-Am

April 15, 2006

(Sacramento Bee, The (CA) (KRT) Via Thomson Dialog NewsEdge) Apr. 15--Chinese President Hu Jintao will visit this country next week for the first time since assuming power in 2003. His meeting Thursday with President Bush could hardly come at a more critical time in a vital relationship beset with strains. Easing those strains is in both countries' interest.


The White House hasn't eased the atmosphere by downgrading Hu's visit from a state visit to an official visit. This is not an insignificant distinction. Chinese officials are said to be furious that Bush will host Hu at a luncheon rather than at a state dinner, which is normally accorded a head of state. So much is at stake one must hope this slight will not affect substantive issues.

China's huge trade surplus with the United States - a record $202 billion last year - is offset by China's purchase of billions in U.S. Treasury instruments that help finance America's trade and budget deficits. That precarious balance could be seriously upset if Congress, as some there have threatened, slapped steep tariffs on Chinese exports in retaliation for its failure to crack down hard on pirated movies, music and software that results in huge lost sales to U.S. producers. And China's refusal to let its undervalued currency, the yuan, rise on exchange markets is a factor in China's huge trade surplus. But an abrupt change in the dollar-yuan exchange rate could depress both U.S. imports and Chinese output, causing economic distress in both countries, a likelihood that protectionist-minded senators now seem to understand.

Strategic factors also are generating friction. China is rapidly expanding its influence in Africa. In a quest for oil and other natural resources, it is aiding countries with atrocious human rights records, including Sudan and Zimbabwe. One result could be to make such countries less susceptible to pressure from the West to adopt more democratic ways.

China also resents what it sees as a U.S. policy of containment akin to its Cold War strategy toward the Soviet Union. Improved U.S. relations with India, including a controversial decision to supply nuclear technology to New Delhi despite its refusal to join the global Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, is one irritant. And unresolved issues over the refusal of Japan, a key U.S. ally, to acknowledge its brutal actions in much of Asia during World War II have brought Chinese-Japanese relations to a low point. And as always, Taiwan, a key U.S. ally that China regards as a renegade province, remains a sore point.

Symptoms of U.S.-China tensions are evident in Beijing's opposition to U.S.-favored sanctions against Iran for its nuclear development program that most Western countries see as leading to a nuclear weapons arsenal, and in China's uncertain direction in its leadership role in six-party talks aimed at dissuading North Korea from expanding its budding nuclear arsenal.

These and other issues make up a formidable agenda for the world's sole superpower and a country rising rapidly toward the same status. As if that weren't enough, some analysts see China's seemingly unstoppable economy as a house of cards waiting to collapse due to bad management of huge and inefficient state-owned companies, a volatile labor market whose inequities are causing great unrest in the countryside and massive corruption that holds back reforms.

In this fragile context, good working relations between the United States and China are essential, which means not allowing justifiable mutual grievances to make matters worse. If nothing else, President Bush ought to make sure that his lunch with Hu is a sumptuous one.

http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/2006/04/15/1575082.htm