AMD strictly moderated (AMD)

[wbmw]

Re: My guess is that OEM are buying tray parts for about 75% of the list outright.

Very detailed analysis. Thank you for your efforts.

My take: I happen to think your product mix is a little off. Here's my take, assuming your sub-product mixes are correct:

 
 Sempron     50.0%     58    29.00 	 
 Athlon 64   40.0%    125    50.00 	 
 X2           5.0%    257    12.85 	 
 FX           0.5%    623     3.12 	 
 Opteron      4.5%    300    13.50 	 
            100.0%          108.50

Since $108.50 is still too high, I would suggest an additional 15% discount on top of the 25% discount you mentioned. That's 40% off the list price, but notice that the discount doesn't seem to affect grey market pricing. That is, the pricing from small vendors on sites like Pricewatch still show near-list pricing. That must mean the discount is mostly given to AMD's OEMs customers, probably as a way of securing design wins and retail shelf space over Intel. I would believe their deepest discounts are going to HP. And since HP is their biggest customer, it would explain a lot.