Sharing Knowledge in Smallcaps

[KauaiPI]

thanks shooter(ELN)...guess my question wasn't clear ...in part because I do not know much re: options... I think I understood your post and it made sense... I was hoping for a hypothetical as in if $1K in the calls, how would the math work "if" and then the optional time frames etc.

I guess, "cleaning up" sort of spells out the upside potential but was hoping for the money (example) vs. risk (both up and down if guessing wrong) to determine if I should consider going forward.

Still would like to know for the future but currently thinking I should follow my own adage of not investing in something I don't understand. A safe way to sleep well at night <g>

No rush, but at your convenience would still appreciate the math on a hypothetical if you ever find the time.

tia

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Re; ELN

Another great day IMO (vol + appreciation)

ELAN CORP PLC (NYSE:ELN)
Last Trade Jun 2 · 6.73 Change +0.61 (+9.97%)
Prev Cls 6.12 Open 6.13 Volume 5,176,100
Day's Range 6.12 - 6.77
Mkt Cap 2.355B Avg Vol 3,011,500
52-wk Range 1.03 - 9.94 P/S 1.67
Div/Shr 0.00 Div Date 4-Jun-99
1y Target Est 4.52

it sure seems to be ahead of the above one year target lol

then there is this hi/lo target... from Yahoo's analyst link

Target Price (12 Month)
High Target $6.00
Mean Target $4.52
Median Target $5.00
Low Target $2.00
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No. of Brokers 5

Covering Brokers
A.G. Edwards & Sons; Bear, Stearns Fixed Income; Davy Stockbrokers; Deutsche Bank; Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein; Friedman, Billings, Ramsey; Goodbody Stockbrokers; ING Financial Markets; Lehman Brothers; Merrill Lynch Global Securities; Merrion Stockbrokers; Morgan Stanley; NCB Stockbrokers, Member of ESN; Prudential-Bache; Ryan Beck & Co.; SG Cowen Securities Corporation Inc; Standard & Poor's; Sturza's Equity Research; UBS Warburg; Wasmer, Schroeder & Co.
------------------

so even taking the HI it is ahead of these folks' projection.

Maybe I should start the trailing stops (lol)

Even though ELN has done well, at current price, with a company that is losing money, is to pricey for me at current valuation. At some time the steam will run out on this, myself, i would feel more comfortable PUTTING ELN when the time is right. With a TA sell signal.... but i dont see that right now. So i will watch. And wish you more success with ELN.

BTW, with them selling off assets to cover debt payments, how much will this effect their sales going forward?

a good question. They have a strong pipeline going forward and clinical trials on going that are showing favorable results. Another poster submitted the following (more bullish than I am but underscores the positive appreciation in spite of the pundents target of $6 lol)

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Sent: 5/26/2003 4:15 AM kaipi.....here is Elan's recovery plan. Elan expect revenue of $600 Million in 2003 and 2004 on their own. With anticipated revenue of up to $1 Billion/year for Antegren alone. Zonegran should be big for them, as well. Short interest on Elan is over 40% of float most recently. At $5.00 shareprice, funds and institutions are now qualified to buy. $5.00 may now be new support.

One key to a successful turnaround was the company's ability to sell off assets and raise nearly $1.5 bln by year's end (in order to meet upcoming debt obligations). ELN has settled its lawsuit with King Pharmaceuticals over the sale of its primary care franchise and this means ELN has accomplished that goal.

The FTC had dropped part of its probe, and that it would not charge the company for using a new patent to block sales of generics.

This latest King Pharm. deal removes the near-term financial risk to ELN and 2) it proves that the new management team headed by Kelly Martin, President and CEO, is capable of delivering on its promises and effectively executing its turnaround strategy.

Recovery Plan - R&D Update

Antegren(TM) (natalizumab) Phase III trials for Crohn's disease and multiple sclerosis ("MS") progressing on target.

Expect to announce Phase III results for Antegren in Crohn's disease during the summer.

New Drug Application ("NDA") for Antegren in Crohn's disease expected to be filed around year-end.

Expect to file an NDA for Prialt(TM) around year-end.

Alzheimer's immunotherapeutic pre-clinical studies on track for two Investigational New Drug ("IND") filings this year.

With respect to Frova(TM), Dr Stephen Silberstein, Professor of Neurology at the Thomas Jefferson Hospital in Philadelphia, presented data from a double-blind, placebo-controlled, clinical trial of 545 women that showed Frova prevented menstrually-associated migraines in up to 50% of women in the trial.

One new trial with Zonegran(TM), which was undertaken by scientists at Duke University and published in the Journal of the American Medical Association on April 9, 2003, reported on the use of Zonegran in potentially inducing weight loss in obese adults.

Announced strategic research alliance with Ingenium Pharmaceuticals AG ("Ingenium") for the identification and development of novel therapeutics for pain management.

Merck & Co., Inc. announced the approval of Emend®, a new medicine to prevent nausea and vomiting in chemotherapy. Emend is Elan's second drug delivery product approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration ("FDA") in the past two years, which utilizes Elan's proprietary NanoCrystal® technology.

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as for your other question;

And also whats up with Sachs filing to dump over 6 mil in shares? Any significance?

...frankly had missed that! Where did you see that? Seeing the targets and today's closing, perhaps Sachs is of the impression it is a little ahead of itself <g> ... I didn't realize they were selling ELN?

But then again, ELN is also selling shares they had of Ligand

OH, WAIT... I just figured it out, the Sachs 6 million is NOT them dumping ELN but ELN's sale of the Ligand position THROUGH Sachs!

5-30-03 filed a form 4 ... 10% owner in Ligand Pharmaceuticals Inc.

http://www.gonow.com/filing.php?repo=tenk&ipage=2181200&doc=1&total=&back=2&g=&a...

5-28-03 144 filing~ Ligand Pharmaceuticals Inc.

http://www.gonow.com/filing.php?repo=tenk&ipage=2173995&doc=1&total=&back=2&g=&a...

1(a) NAME OF ISSUER (Please type or print) LIGAND PHARMACEUTICALS INCORPORATED

2(a) NAME OF PERSON FOR WHOSE ACCOUNT THE SECURITIES ARE TO BE SOLD ELAN INTERNATIONAL SERVICES LTD

Common Stock Goldman, Sachs & Co. 6,400,000 $78,848,000 69,267,262 05/28/2003 NASDAQ (as of 5/27/03)

Common 12/10/1999 Received in lieu Ligand Pharmaceuticals 498,443 12/10/1999 Surrender of Stock of license fees Inc. right to receive payable by Ligand license fees. to Elan. -------------------------------

Common 03/01/2000 Conversion of zero Ligand Pharmaceuticals 1,501,543 03/01/2000 Surrender of Stock coupon convertible Inc. notes. senior notes of Ligand.
---------------------------

Common 02/01/2002 Conversion of zero Ligand Pharmaceuticals 4,400,014 02/01/2002 Surrender of Stock coupon convertible Inc. notes. senior notes of Ligand.
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so understanding that, another $78M in the bank for ELN (kaChing!) and I *think* the reason for today's move... that was 78M or about 12.31 per LGND share. Then on Friday LGND was at 12.75 and today;

LIGAND PHARM B (NasdaqNM:LGND)
Last Trade Jun 2 · 13.65 Change +0.93 (+7.27%)
Prev Cls 12.73 Open 13.05 Volume 3,192,023
Day's Range 13.05 - 14.42 Bid 12.77 Ask 13.95
Mkt Cap 945.5M Avg Vol 966,545 52-wk Range 3.69 - 18.00

...I would assume that as lgnd goes up, so does the expectations for ELN's revenue via liqudation 6.4M x 13.65 = $87.36M. At least that is how I was reading it.

yep, still bullish but knowing nothing goes up forever, I am starting to worry a little <Bg>

best!
kp