Biotech Values

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VRTX
VX-950 trial to have a 24-week arm (maybe):

http://www.forbes.com/2006/04/12/vertex-pharmaceutical-0412markets16.html

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Vertex May Have Removed Major Risk Factor

Peter Kang
04.12.06

Piper Jaffray upgraded shares of Vertex Pharmaceuticals to "outperform" from "market perform" and said a potential change to an upcoming clinical trial reduces risk in the development of the biotech firm's lead drug VX-950.

Citing conversations with "people close to the study," analyst Rachel McMinn said a Phase II trial of the promising hepatitis C will now include a third arm that will assess 24-weeks of dosing, in addition to the previously announced 12-week dosing arm.

"In our opinion, this new trial design alleviates a major risk factor for the VX-950 program," McMinn wrote Wednesday in a note to investors. "Our primary concern with VX-950 has been that 12 weeks of dosing may generate a less than optimal sustained virologic response rate."

The research analyst lifted the price target on the stock to $42 from $38. "We are upgrading Vertex … based on what we view as a positive development change for VX-950, which we expect will ultimately yield a very favorable clinical outcome," the analyst said.

McMinn said Vertex's "best-case scenario" for VX-950 would be for 12-week data to be favorable enough to validate a Phase III trial initiation in mid-2007, with a market launch in 2009. At the other end of the spectrum, the worst-case scenario would be for Vertex to wait for full 24-week data with a Phase III start at the end of 2007, and a launch in 2010.

Vertex is in a race with Schering-Plough to bring the first hepatitis C protease inhibitor to the market. Other companies working to bring new hepatitis drugs to the market include Idenix Pharmaceuticals, Anadys Pharmaceuticals and Valeant Pharmaceuticals.

Vertex declined to comment on Piper's report.
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