Foreign Correspondence

[Amaunet]

Italy goes left


Italy's Prodi set to win election
Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:15 PM BST



By Crispian Balmer

ROME (Reuters) - Centre-left leader Romano Prodi looks set to beat Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi in Italy's general election, winning a majority in both houses of parliament, according to exit polls released on Monday.

A poll by the Nexus research institute predicted that Prodi's alliance would win between 50 and 54 percent of the vote in both the lower and upper houses of parliament.

Berlusconi's centre-right bloc was shown winning 45 to 49 percent of the vote in both houses according to the poll, broadcast by state television RAI.

A separate poll by Piepoli, shown on Sky Italia television, showed former European Commission president Prodi winning 52 percent of the vote in the lower house, to give it 340 of the chamber's 630 seats.

It was seen winning around 167 of the 315 seats up for grabs in the upper house (Senate).

A more detailed Nexus exit poll is due out at 3.45 p.m. (2:45 British time). Official results are due by the end of Monday.

Prodi's centre-left alliance, which stretches from Roman Catholic centrists to communists, had led in opinion polls for the past two years, benefiting from widespread voter discontent over the stagnant economy.

Berlusconi, Italy's richest man who created the country's biggest media empire, dominated the often ill-tempered election campaign with a string of outbursts, gaffes and last-minute promises to cut taxes.

But pollsters said his House of Freedoms coalition always faced an uphill battle to win over voters who felt the ever-optimistic Berlusconi had failed to deliver on pledges to revolutionise hidebound Italy and revive the economy.

The Piepoli poll suggested the prime minister's own Forza Italia (Go Italy) party had suffered a pummelling with support dropping to 21.0 percent from 29.4 percent in 2001.

PRICKLY PARTNERS

Prodi, 66, beat Berlusconi in a 1996 general election, but his government lasted only two years before it was brought down by disgruntled communist allies.

Critics say any new government headed by the occasionally prickly Prodi will suffer a similar fate because of the gaping ideological divide within his multi-party alliance.

But Prodi insisted throughout the campaign that his coalition could last a full five-year term, noting that unlike in 1996 his allies had signed up to a 289-page manifesto that will serve as a road map for any centre-left government.

The manifesto pledges to cut labour taxes, provide bigger handouts for families with children, reintroduce an inheritance tax, scrap plans to raise the age of retirement to 60 and launch a crackdown on tax evasion.

Berlusconi has warned that the left will bring tax misery to the middle classes and said last week that only "coglioni" would vote for Prodi. "Coglioni" means testicles and is often used as an insult meaning "asshole".

Centre-left leaders said privately that the outburst had persuaded many undecided voters to turn out for them.

On foreign policy, Prodi has vowed a swift withdrawal of Italian troops sent to Iraq by Berlusconi, who is one of U.S. President George W. Bush's closest allies in Europe.

Analysts say Prodi is bound to alter Italy's diplomatic priorities, putting Europe rather than the United States first.

If Prodi's victory is confirmed, he will inherit the unenviable task of cutting the world's third-largest national debt while trying to breathe life into an economy that grew an average of 0.6 percent a year under Berlusconi.

He looked to have a smaller parliamentary majority than Berlusconi's due to a change in the electoral system that the outgoing government pushed through parliament last year in a move critics said was designed to hobble a Prodi administration.

Whatever the result, the next government is not expected to take office for at least a month, with Berlusconi set to stay on in a caretaker capacity until parliament nominates a successor to President Carlo Azeglio Ciampi, whose mandate expires in May.

The president must name the new prime minister and Ciampi says he wants to leave the task to his successor.



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